What stakeholders should act on. Each figure is a published cell or a model already in reports/key_numbers.json. Status is a reading rule for this page: Concern if the rate is under 50%, the disadvantage is more than 10 points, or the fitted attendance decline is steeper than 1 point a year. Watch is a disadvantage of 3 to 10 points. On track is within 3 points, or the NT side of a resource comparison is the better-resourced one. These are not targets set by the NT Department of Education.
Concern
58.3%
NT Aboriginal attendance, Years 1–10, 2025
Down −1.19 pts/yr · OLS, 9 published years
−18.9 pp vs Australia Aboriginal (77.2%)
The decline is the Aboriginal series. Non-Indigenous students in the NT attended 89.4%, level with Australia (89.7%).
Concern
45.8%
Very remote NT, Aboriginal students, 2025
2025 cross-section only · no annual slope in this block
−8.4 pp vs Australia very remote (54.2%)
Outer regional NT already matches Australia (77.1% and 77.0%). The shortfall sits in very remote schools.
Concern
39.0% · 40.3%
Regional hotspots, government schools, whole of 2024
Single year · East Arnhem and Barkly Aboriginal attendance
−33.4 pp and −32.1 pp vs Darwin (72.4%)
East Arnhem and the Barkly are the low regions. Darwin is not. This is the department’s whole-year collection, not the RoGS semester series.
Concern
71.7% need support
Year 3 reading, NT Aboriginal students, 2025
Support share 63.6% in 2023, 71.7% in 2025, 67.6% in 2026. Absence 31.7% in 2023, 26.1% in 2025, 35.3% in 2026.
+37.8 pp vs Australia Aboriginal on need-support; absence +19.7 pp (26.1% vs 6.4%)
In very remote NT, 89.6% of assessed students need support and 38.0% were absent. Proficiency excludes students who were absent.
Concern
34.9%
Indigenous Year 12 apparent retention, 2025
Flat: 35.2% in 2016 and 34.9% in 2025. WA rose from 44.7% to 69.7%.
−34.8 pp vs Western Australia (69.7%)
Same ABS Year 7/8 to Year 12 measure. Apparent retention is not a cohort completion rate.
On track
10.7 students/teacher
Resourcing, NT government schools
Spend $32,223 per student in 2023-24 · single-year snapshots
−2.3 students vs Australia (13.0); spend +$6,083 vs $26,140
The NT already has fewer students per teacher and spends more per student. Resourcing is not the main lever.
Concern
−12.7 pp
School regression, government schools, 2024
R² 0.859 · n = 128 · enrolment-weighted, HC1
−12.7 pp very remote vs outer regional, after Indigenous share and bottom SEA
Remote is not distinguishable from outer regional (−1.1 pp, p = 0.66). This describes co-movement. It is not a causal estimate, and schools are not ranked.