Cash rate
4.6%
Four rises in 2026, 1.00 percentage point in total. The latest reading is 29 October 2026.
Figures checked Sunday 1 November 2026, 9:22am AEDT. Melbourne time.
$600,000 loan, since January
$268
More each month. The average variable rate borrowers are paying went from 5.5% in January to 6.2% in August.
Inflation versus the target
4.3%
Prices were this much higher than a year earlier in September. Underlying inflation was 3.6%. The target is 2 to 3%.
Cash rate above underlying inflation
1 pts
The cash rate minus September’s underlying inflation. Policy is sitting above the pace of underlying prices.
Unemployment
4.7%
In September, up from 4.1% in January. The jobs market has loosened, and it is still tight enough for the Bank to worry about prices.
The cash rate has risen back above inflation
The shaded band is the 2 to 3% inflation target. Prices and underlying inflation are both still above it. The cash rate is the Reserve Bank’s overnight target, not the rate on your loan.
A $600,000 loan costs about $3,675 a month
That is a 30-year principal-and-interest comparison at the average variable rate people are actually paying. It is about $268 more than in January. Another 0.25 percentage points, if a lender passes it on in full, is about $98 more on $600,000, or $16 per $100,000.
Unemployment has drifted up
From 4.1% in January to 4.7% in September. The Bank has said the jobs market is easier than it was, and still a bit tight.
What the Reserve Bank keeps coming back to
Share of its 2025–2026 passages that mention each subject. Energy, spare capacity and jobs dominate. Artificial intelligence and the investment boom around it show up more often through 2026.
What the Reserve Bank is saying
These are sentences from Reserve Bank documents, not a rewritten summary. Each one links to the page it came from.
Why are rates going up?
“But inflation is still too high and the Board judged that, in light of recent developments, a further tightening in financial conditions is warranted to support a return of inflation to target in a reasonable period.”
Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision · 29 September 2026
What has it said about prices?
“Trimmed mean inflation remains elevated compared with the baseline – around 0.4 percentage points higher by early 2027 – as the larger and more persistent energy price shock passes through to consumer prices (Graph 3.10).”
Outlook · 5 May 2026
What has it said about jobs?
“The unemployment rate was 4.4 per cent in June; this is still below our estimate of the rate consistent with full employment, suggesting that labour market conditions remain a little tight.”
Economic Conditions · 11 August 2026
What has it said about energy and the Middle East?
“Members noted a range of upside risks to this projection, including: global oil prices could move even higher if the conflict in the Middle East persists or escalates; pass-through to consumer prices of cost pressures related to the conflict could be more pronounced; and domestic capacity pressures could be more enduring if the global or Australian economies receive more support from AI-related investment than anticipated or growth in domestic supply capacity proves even weaker than assumed.”
11 August 2026 · 11 August 2026
What has it said about artificial intelligence and investment?
“This reflected significant fundraising for investment in AI, a reassessment of the prospective returns from investment in data centres (given broader developments in the market for AI services) and the unwinding of some highly leveraged positions in certain AI-related equities.”
11 August 2026 · 11 August 2026
What this means for you
The September cash-rate rise is not in the August mortgage figure yet. The published average variable rate had already risen 0.70 percentage points by August, close to the 0.75 points of cash-rate rises up to May. A further quarter of a point fully passed on is about $98 a month on a $600,000 loan.
That August repayment is about 41% of one full-time adult’s ordinary-time pay ($2,084 a week in the first half of 2026). A two-income household would see a smaller share. People without a mortgage are not in this illustration. Across the whole economy, scheduled housing repayments were 9.4% of household disposable income in the March quarter, the latest ratio the Reserve Bank has published.
The four major banks have said they expect the cash rate to rise to 4.85% on 3 November. That is their forecast, reported by Savings.com.au in late October 2026. It is not a Reserve Bank decision. If you are weighing a fixed rate against a variable rate, the practical question is whether another $98 a month on a $600,000 balance is something you can absorb if your lender passes on one more rise.
Look up a phrase in the Reserve Bank’s own words
This searches the same saved documents. Nothing is sent to a server.